OOD Q&A (submitted by C. Bailo – Center for Automotive Research 29Oct2019)

1. Could you share some information about Center for Automotive Research? What kinds of projects and studies are ongoing?

The Center for Automotive Research is a 401C3 non-profit automotive think tank.Our mission is to promote the sustainability of the automotive sector.We do this by providing compelling research that provides a toolkit for automotive companies to navigate the waters of the future and support their business decisions.Our research is comprised of economics related to trade and tariff policies, labor relations and union negotiations, propulsion and electrification including electrical infrastructure, regulatory and policy, materials and manufacturing (industry 4.0, lightweighting, additive manufacturing), smart mobility, mobility partnerships, and smart cities.

2. Considering technological developments and digitalizing age, what do you think are the necessary infrastructure studies that can support the dynamics of competition amongst countries?

Technology is developing at an exponential pace.We look at technology both from product development and society.The shift in automotive is to the customer experience and this is all about HMI and meeting the needs of the customer.It’s much different than moving people or goods from place to place.Mobility really provides ladders of opportunity for communities.We need more research about the usage of technology to really solve the problems in our society to enable all the access to mobility (which is to jobs, health care, education).

3. Connectivity in every field of technology continues to be an important agenda item in our era. What are the benefits of connectivity? What are your studies and suggestions about it?

Connectivity is going to continue to expand to everything an individual owns.Our car will be communicating with our house, our refrigerator and ordering things we need to have restocked.People will continue to crave more as it provides simplicity to focus on other things more interesting or compelling. But, this does create issues in terms of cybersecurity and privacy.More studies are needed to ensure this gap can be bridged.

4. Nowadays, big data is a very important concept and with digitalization, it has become a subject that directs many sectors. What are the global developments regarding big data and its management? What important developments are expected regarding big data in the next five years?

Mobility data is projected to be a $2.3 trillion-dollar business, so it will definitely grow.The issue is that most companies don’t have the expertise to be able to analyze the vast amounts of data they are receiving and to understand what is truly important to improve their business. Moreover, we don’t have the human capital to hire this work to be done.Academia must take a role in solving this and companies need to be very careful to understand that all data isn’t relevant and not get buried in data.Big data will get bigger, but companies need to analyze it much smarter, then utilize it to better their business and improve the lives of their customer.

5. How do you think artificial intelligence will affect technology in the coming years? What kind of innovations do you envisage in the production sectors? How should sectors and professions plan their future?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) will continue to grow in many facets of industry as well as in the household.Many repetitious jobs can be managed by robots or cobots.It will be utilized to find problems before they are built on an assembly line or before the customer can find them.AI including voice recognition will continue to grow at a fast pace – distraction is a problem, so VR to enable one to keep their eyes on the road, sidewalk, etc. will definitely help the mobility sector.AI from a autonomous vehicle perspective is a MUST to enable machine learning so that the computer brain of the car can be taught to think/act like a driver and anticipate several scenarios.Much of the AI/machine learning will be done via simulation, but some on the road validation will always be needed.

6. What are the latest developments about artificial intelligence and the internet of things?

Latest developments for AI are in manufacturing (to improve quality, quickly validate new part designs, improve or prevent warranty) – this data is quickly feedback to the production design cycle and lessons learned for all other products are quickly incorporated.From an internet of things perspective, data gleaned from computer browsing, automotive onboard systems continue to help new product development and quickly improve existing systems.

7. How would you evaluate global performance of the automotive market in 2019? Could you share your 2020 predictions with us?

2019 and 2020 will continue to be full of headwinds and disruption for the automotive industry.New players and products will be hitting the market at a rapid pace.The portfolio of products being demanded by the customer will continue to grow and managing this at a global level will be stressful.We will see many more partnerships and mergers to combine development expense so that the automotive company can survive this level of investment.Beyond this, economically, there will a dip in terms of sales volume which will further put stress on profit and amount of dollars for investment which indicates more partnerships and combining of monies will be needed.

8. What kind of developments do you expect in automotive technologies in the next ten years? What do you think will be the future technologies and which ones will stand out? (Powertrain, electronics, software, changing consumer preferences and new materials)

Many developments will be happening in the next ten years.Powertrain – both internal combustion engine and electrical vehicles require new innovations in technology.ICE will continue to evolve to downsize with the same capacities.Battery technology including breakthroughs for range, weight, durability, and cost will continue to be seen.Solid state batteries should evolve in this timeframe or shortly thereafter.Solid state lidar will be available which will greatly improve performance and cost to enable more safe technologies be included on all products.ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) to remove the human error element in driving will be improved via AI and be included on more products.The entire product development cycle is likely to be greatly reduced in terms of vehicle life.Autonomous vehicles in mobility service companies will never stop changes the design plans and layout of all products.Durability cycles of various components will change creating more of an airline model which changes the way cars are assembled today.Customers will expect their vehicle/transit pod to be like their computers and cell phones with over the air updates and continuous updating – they will not wait for minor or full model change.Companies will need to morph to manage this and this will be a key test for all automotive companies of the future.

9. What kind of investments should be made within the scope of new technologies in automotive and software sector? (RADAR, LIDAR, batteries, advanced material, artificial intelligence, ACES vehicles)

All kinds of technologies will need investment which I covered in the above answers.No company can ignore any of the elements on a global scale or they will not exist.If they can’t do it, they need to join with another company to work in tandem.

10. When we take rising competitive environment and new trends into consideration, which actions do you think we need in the sector globally?

Globally, we must work together to align standards and policies as all automakers are global.These means safety standards for batteries, charging stations, autonomous vehicles need to be consistent and harmonized.The brain of the car can’t change as it drives across borders, so agencies must work together with the automotives to create the common elements to reduce complexity.

11. How do you think e-mobility will affect our sector?

E-mobility will have a huge influence on the automotive sector and has already.Tesla has been a major disruptor to the traditional automotive companies.Cities and countries will continue to push for EV’s via regulation and policy and the automakers must meet these demands.

12. Could you evaluate zero emission-oriented action plans and strategies of the manufacturers of the sector in general?

All automotive companies have announced clear strategies to electrify their portfolios as this is in line with the requirements of municipalities.Automakers must comply with the demands of their customers which includes governments.HOWEVER, they can’t make the customer buy what they don’t want, so they must offer all propulsion systems for a considerable amount of time on a global level.

13. What do you think about Turkey’s automotive industry? What is the importance and role of Turkey’s automotive industry in the world?

Turkey has continued to lead in several ways including producing a number of academics with keen knowledge regarding AI and autonomous systems.Further, Turkey has a robust role in manufacturing and the manufacturing plants in Turkey are at the forefront of technology in terms of smart factories, etc.As these plants are relatively new, this is a great opportunity to continue to lead in this field.